East Asia in 2024: Political Turmoil and Security Challenges
Dr. Anudeep Gujjeti
East Asia in 2024 witnessed significant political and security developments especially in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, all of which have profound implications for the evolving regional security dynamics. The aggressive posturing by China, the persistent threat from North Korea, and Russia’s increasing engagement with both nations further complicated the situation. Additionally, the upcoming return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2025 added another layer of uncertainty to the region’s strategic landscape. In this context it is important to take stock of how Taiwan, Japan and South Korea fared in 2024.
In Taiwan, the 2024 elections underscored the island’s vibrant yet contentious democratic environment. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) emerged victorious, with Lai Ching-teh and Hsiao Bi-khim securing the presidency. However, the legislative results produced a fragmented parliament, with the Kuomintang (KMT) holding 52 seats, the DPP 51, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) getting 8 seats. This divided legislature has created a political gridlock, complicating governance and policymaking for the DPP.
The post-election period was marked by the “Bluebird Movement,” where thousands protested against the perceived undermining of democratic procedures by the KMT and TPP. These protests, fueled by dissatisfaction with parliamentary reforms and legislative transparency, highlighted Taiwan’s vibrant civic society. However, the resulting tensions have strained executive-legislative relations, potentially weakening Taiwan’s ability to address internal and external challenges. Externally, the DPP’s victory signals continuity in Taiwan’s pro-independence stance, likely exacerbating tensions with Beijing. China’s aggressive manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait, coupled with Russia’s support, pose significant challenges to Taiwan’s security. The political turmoil within Taiwan may hinder its ability to effectively respond to such threats, making regional stability more precarious.
On the other hand, Japan experienced its own political upheaval in 2024 with the election of Shigeru Ishiba as Prime Minister. Ishiba’s decision to dissolve the lower house and call for snap elections backfired, leading to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing its majority for the third time in its history. The ruling coalition's defeat reflects growing public dissatisfaction with the LDP’s governance and Ishiba’s leadership, plunging Japan into a period of political uncertainty.
In the general elections for the House of Representatives on 27 October 2024, the LDP’s seat count dropped sharply from 259 in 2021 to 191 in 2024, marking a loss of 69 seats. Komeito, the LDP’s coalition partner, also suffered losses, with its seats decreasing from 32 in 2021 to 24 in 2024, a reduction of 8 seats. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP) emerged as a significant player, increasing its seats fourfold to 28. With no party holding a majority, Ishiba faces immense challenges in building a functional government.
Ishiba’s campaign emphasised the need for constitutional reform, a stronger Japan-US alliance, and the creation of an “Asian NATO” to counter regional security threats. However, Ishiba’s inability to secure a parliamentary majority undermines his capacity to implement these ambitious policies. The Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which gained significant traction in the elections, is poised to challenge Ishiba on key policy issues, further complicating his administration's agenda.
Japan’s internal political instability occurs at a critical time, as the region faces escalating security challenges. North Korea’s nuclear program, China’s assertiveness, and the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s impending presidency demand strong and consistent leadership. Ishiba’s precarious position raises concerns about Japan’s ability to maintain its strategic commitments, particularly within the framework of the US-led security architecture in East Asia.
South Korea’s political landscape was upended by President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law in December 2024, citing threats from pro-North Korean forces. This unprecedented move sparked widespread protests and led to Yoon’s impeachment by the National Assembly. The subsequent transfer of power to Acting President Han Duck-Soo lasted less than two weeks, as he was impeached on September 27. The ongoing constitutional court proceedings have since plunged South Korea into political turmoil.
Yoon’s presidency helped South Korea’s foreign relations, particularly with Japan and the US. His efforts to strengthen trilateral ties were undermined by domestic opposition and his abrupt policy decisions. The prospect of a new administration under opposition leader Lee Jae-Myung, who advocates for a more balanced approach to relations with China and a critical stance toward Japan, further complicates the regional security dynamics.
The impeachment crisis has also reignited debates about the concentration of power in the presidency and the fragility of South Korea’s democratic institutions. Domestically, the upheaval raises questions about the continuity of governance, while regionally, it risks undermining collective efforts to address shared security challenges. North Korea’s continued provocations, including missile tests and cyberattacks, exacerbate these challenges, demanding a unified and effective response that South Korea may struggle to provide amid political instability.
The developments in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea in 2024 have far reaching implications for East Asia’s security environment. China’s aggressive posture, including military exercises near Taiwan and its growing alignment with Russia and North Korea, underscores the need for robust regional cooperation. The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency adds another layer of uncertainty. Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy and potential disengagement from traditional alliances may weaken the US commitment to East Asia, emboldening adversaries like China and North Korea. Trump’s administration’s approach to burden sharing and alliance management will be closely watched, as it will significantly influence the region’s strategic calculations.
East Asia in 2024 stands at a crossroads, with Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea grappling with internal political challenges that have significant implications for regional security. The interplay of domestic politics, external threats, and shifting alliances underscores the complexity of the security dynamics in the region. As these nations navigate respective crises, their ability to maintain stability and cooperation in various domains such as technology, military-industrial relations, and regional security will be crucial in shaping the future of East Asia’s strategic landscape.
Dr. Anudeep Gujjeti is Assistant Professor at the Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru.
