India’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ could be tested under Trump 2.0
Dr. Vijay Sakhuja
Indian political leaders and policymakers often cite “strategic autonomy” and “multi-alignment” as New Delhi’s foreign policy choices. These are now being referred to by the US military leadership also. During a recent interaction at the Brookings Institution, Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, among many other issues including China, highlighted the India-US military partnership, which according to him is “growing year by year”; this is notwithstanding “its [India] history in the non-aligned movement”. Furthermore, India is diversifying its sources of arms wherein among the others (particularly Russia), the US is an important supplier. Admiral Paparo is confident that “those [Russia] partnerships will likely fade over time” as Washington and New Delhi pursue the goal of identifying strategic convergences.
Samuel Paparo is quite right. According to “Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2023” published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India is among the top importers of military hardware in the world and Russia has been a major supplier; however, in recent times, Russian share in the Indian arm imports has witnessed slight decline i.e. from 76 percent between 2009 and 2013; 58 percent in 2014 to 2028; and 36 percent in 2019 to 2023.
A part of this decline has been filled in by its own military industrial complex which is now being prepared for indigenous production. Defence Industrial Corridors have been established in Uttar Pradesh in north India and Tamil Nadu in the south. In fact India’s new acquisitions of weapons strictly adhere to the 2020 Defence Production and Export Promotion Policy which mandates boosting the indigenous military complex and lessens import substitution. The DPEPP envisages indigenous production of military hardware in the order of INR 1.75 lakh crore (US$ 25 billion) by 2025.
Admiral Samuel Paparo also noted that there are several convergences and “many mutual interests” between the two countries which necessitates keeping “our foot on the accelerator.” After the successes with the four agreements i.e. the 2002 General Security of Military Information Agreement; the 2016 Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement; the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement; and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Intelligence , the two militaries are now ready for further expanding and advancing the their strategic partnership.
Encouraged by the successes of the above four agreements, and convinced that the India-US relations will define the 21st century, Republican Senator Marco Rubio introduced a bill short titled “United States-India Defense Cooperation Act of 2024”. The bill emphasizes that “it is in the interest of peace and stability for the Republic of India to have the capabilities needed to deter threats against its sovereignty.” The bill also makes reference to Pakistan and calls upon the US Secretary of State to file a report regarding the “offensive uses of force” against India by Pakistan and its proxies. In the event of such an eventuality, the US should cease “security assistance under this Act” to Pakistan.
During their meeting in September 2024, Prime Minister Modi and President Biden acknowledged the progress made in the bilateral defence cooperation and emphasised that both countries are committed to global peace and security. Also, both militaries are benefiting from the their bilateral engagements such as exercises, operational practices, sharing of information and military innovation.
It is notable that the India-US Defence Industrial Cooperation Roadmap has showcased steady progress and priority is being accorded to joint development and production of military platforms and related equipment. The Security of Supply Arrangement (SOSA) envisages supply of military related goods and services. There are several other similar initiatives which add to the robustness of the bilateral defence partnership including the 2023 India-U.S. Defense Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X) initiative, collaboration under Memorandum of Understanding between the Innovations for Defence Excellence (iDEX) and Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and the INDUSWERX consortium which enables the “defense and dual-use companies in the INDUS-X network” to use test ranges in India and the US.
Another important facet of the defence industry cooperation between the two countries is the Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) which has steadily made impressive headway. Under the MRO, the US warships have docked in Indian dockyards for repairs. Similarly, under aerospace cooperation, Lockheed Martin and Tata Advanced Systems Limited are setting up MRO facility in India to support maintenance of C-130 Super Hercules aircraft.
The impetus accorded to bilateral India-US defence cooperation under the Biden Administration is notable and merits accolades for both President Biden and Prime Minister Modi. However, it is difficult at this moment to determine its future trajectory under President Trump who returns back to the helm in January 2025. Indian analysts are optimistic about India-US bilateral defence cooperation but remain skeptical of the Trump Administration about military sales to India. A possible modus vivendi would have to be found. It is here that India’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ would be tested.
Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru.
