Strategic Defiance: Azerbaijan’s Calculated Snub Reflects Shifting Russia-Azerbaijan Relations

Dr. Zheer Ahmed

19 May, 2025

The commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Red Army’s victory over Nazi Germany on 9 May 2025 in Moscow navigated a diplomatic tension between Russia and Azerbaijan. A symbolic fracture emerged in relations as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev withdrew from the Victory Day parade in Moscow at the eleventh hour; instead, he opted to spend the day in Azerbaijan’s recently regained territories from Armenia. This last-minute change carried unmistakable diplomatic weight, signaling Azerbaijan’s growing dissatisfaction with the Kremlin and reflecting broader shifts in the geopolitical dynamics of the Caucasus region.

Aliyev’s absence was not merely a scheduling adjustment. It was a calculated geopolitical gesture. His originally stated intention to participate in the Moscow parade had been widely reported, which made his reversal appear all the more deliberate. The announcement was timed to create maximum symbolic impact, underscoring Aliyev’s discontent with Moscow’s recent behavior and policies. For President Vladimir Putin, whose government had orchestrated the high-profile anniversary with military fanfare and historical gravitas, the snub was an unmistakable affront.

While Russian officials and media outlets reacted with a mix of scorn and indignation, it was clear that Aliyev’s decision was not impulsive. On 9 May, he engaged in a carefully orchestrated public relations campaign across several strategic locations in Karabakh territories reclaimed by Azerbaijan from Armenia during the Second Karabakh War. He presided over ribbon-cutting ceremonies, inaugurated infrastructure projects, and participated in events highlighting Azerbaijan’s ongoing reconstruction efforts in these areas. These activities served a dual purpose: reinforcing his domestic narrative of strength and sovereignty while simultaneously sending a pointed message to Moscow. It also signified a recalibration in Azerbaijan’s foreign policy posture—one aimed at asserting greater autonomy and demanding a rebalancing of its relationship with Russia.

The underlying tensions in Russia-Azerbaijan relations have been simmering for months. At the core of Baku’s grievances lies Russia’s continued refusal to accept responsibility for the downing of an Azerbaijani civilian aircraft in December 2024. The incident provoked weeks of diplomatic back-and-forth, but ultimately saw Moscow deny culpability. Although this controversy had seemed to subside, the unresolved nature of the issue continued to fester beneath the surface of diplomatic interactions.

Aliyev’s decision to stay away from Moscow was interpreted by domestic media as a ‘principled and measured stance’ in the face of longstanding frustrations. The Azerbaijani state-affiliated news outlet 1news.az remarked that Aliyev’s choice was a rational response to Russia’s disrespect and a reflection of unresolved bilateral issues that required greater acknowledgment from Moscow.

The Russian reaction was swift and largely vitriolic. Conservative and nationalist media outlets, including the ultra-right-wing Tsargrad, unleashed a barrage of criticism. Aliyev was labeled a ‘boor who has gone too far,’ with commentators questioning the value of maintaining relations with Azerbaijan at all. Russian Duma member Konstantin Zatulin, speaking to an Armenian media outlet, bluntly declared that Russia does not consider Azerbaijan an ally, further escalating the rhetorical conflict and casting doubt on Azerbaijan’s authority in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Further underscoring the shifting narrative, Caliber.az, a prominent Azerbaijani media platform, highlighted a statement by US Vice President JD Vance criticizing Russia’s expectations in Ukraine, implicitly aligning Azerbaijan’s media messaging with Western critiques of Kremlin policy. This triangulation—asserting Azerbaijan’s independent voice while signaling displeasure with Russia—reflects a nuanced realignment in Baku’s geopolitical calculus.

Despite the heightened rhetoric, it is clear that the relationship between Moscow and Baku remains underpinned by economic interdependence. The Northern Corridor trade route, which facilitates transit through the South Caucasus, remains a crucial artery for regional supply chains. For this reason, some voices within Russia are seeking to de-escalate the situation. Russian MP Svetlana Zhurova, for instance, downplayed the significance of Aliyev’s absence, suggesting it should not be seen as a hostile act. Her statement reflected a broader Kremlin strategy to contain the fallout and avoid further deterioration of relations.

Nonetheless, the recent developments indicate a fundamental shift in the balance of power and influence in the Caucasus. As Azerbaijan continues to rebuild and assert its sovereignty over territories previously under Armenian control, it is also pushing back against Russian overreach and perceived indifference. This marks a significant moment in the region’s evolving geopolitical landscape, where traditional alliances are being reconsidered and new strategic alignments are emerging.

The Victory Day snub encapsulates more than a single diplomatic disagreement. It reflected the deepening complexities of Russia-Azerbaijan relations and the broader contest for influence in the Caucasus. While economic ties remain intact for now, the political and symbolic rift may signal a longer-term reconfiguration of regional alliances, with implications that extend far beyond May 9. As Azerbaijan recalibrates its foreign policy orientation, the Kremlin may need to reconsider how it engages with its neighbors in an increasingly multipolar world order.

Dr. Zheer Ahmed is Assistant Professor at Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies, REVA University, Bengaluru.