Time to Dismiss Pakistan’s Nuclear Blackmail

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja

21 May 2025

There have been widespread media reports about nuclear radiation leak at Kirana Hills in Pakistan. According to reports, Nur Khan Airbase in Chaklala, Rawalpindi, near the Kirana Hills, was “hit by Indian missiles”. Apparently, Kirana Hills is home to nuclear storage/testing facility under the control of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD). The SPD is the apex nuclear body in Pakistan and is “responsible for ensuring the security and protection of nuclear facilities, including physical security measures and emergency response plans”.

However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the global nuclear watchdog, has dismissed the news and clarified that “based on information available to the IAEA, there has been no radiation leak or release from any nuclear facility in Pakistan.” Similarly, India had earlier categorically dismissed similar news, and the Director General of Air Operations had rejected any insinuations that the Indian Air Force had targeted nuclear installations in Pakistan when it hit military facilities in Pakistan at Rafiqui, Murid, Rahim Yar Khan, Sukkur, Chunian, Pasrur, and Sialkot including Nur Khan, as part of Operation Sindoor.

In fact, the Indian government, through the Ministry of External Affairs, even dismissed President Donald Trump’s assertion that “we [US] stopped the nuclear conflict. I think it could have been a bad nuclear war. Millions of people could have been killed, so I’m very proud of that.” Furthermore, the spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs of India emphasised that “military action was entirely in the conventional domain. There were some reports that Pakistan’s National Command Authority would meet on May 10, but this was later denied by them.”

Even the Pakistani side clarified that the escalatory military response was in the form of tit-for-tat strikes, and that they were “very sure that our [Pakistan] conventional capacity and capabilities are strong enough that we will beat them both in air and on ground,” clearly suggesting that “nuclear option was never on the table.”

Notwithstanding that, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has pointed to Pakistan’s nuclear threat against India. Singh has called upon the global community to pay heed to the irresponsible behaviour of Pakistan to have “threatened India with its nuclear weapons.” Further, he questioned “are nuclear weapons safe in the hands of such a rogue nation?” and suggested that “Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal must be placed under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.”

As early as 1969, former Z.A. Bhutto had warned that in case the Pakistan government “restricts or suspends her nuclear programme, it would not only enable India to blackmail Pakistan with her nuclear advantage, but would impose a crippling limitation on the development of Pakistan’s science and technology.” After its nuclear test in 1998, Islamabad was convinced that it has acquired military parity despite a “massive disparity in conventional military capabilities.”

It has been argued that “Pakistani leaders have always tried to make a convincing case to justify nuclear weapons as the only means available to preserve a broad strategic equilibrium with India, to neutralize Indian nuclear threats or blackmail, and to counter India’s large conventional forces.” Therefore, it is not surprising that “the Pakistani nuclear doctrine encapsulates a more offensive form of deterrence that seeks to change the status quo by holding out the threat of nuclear blackmail on Kashmir while deterring an Indian conventional attack.”

Islamabad is surely emboldened by its choice of “nuclear blackmail” and it is their belief that India will be deterred. Even during the Kargil War, the Pakistan military leaders insisted “there is no chance of the Kargil conflict leading to a full-fledged war.”

It is not surprising then that in the last 25 years Pakistan has used terrorism as a tool of its foreign policy to settle the Kashmir issue and according to an analyst Islamabad is “buoyed by the perception that nuclear deterrence worked in their favour, the larger Pakistani strategy appears to be to continue to bleed India while not provoking it enough to escalate to a point where any kind of decisive Indian action wrests the control of escalation from Pakistan.”

However, Islamabad may have to heed to Prime Minister Modi’s speech after Operation Sindoor where he alluded to Pakistan’s “nuclear blackmail”, and warned that “India will not be intimidated by nuclear threats. Any terrorist safe haven operating under this pretext will face precise and decisive strikes.”

There is a history with regard to nuclear blackmail by Pakistan, and this choice by Islamabad needs to be understood and requires a response.

Dr. Vijay Sakhuja is Professor and Head, Center of Excellence for Geopolitics and International Studies (CEGIS), REVA University, Bengaluru and is associated with Kalinga International Foundation, New Delhi.